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A-priori travel time predictor for long term roadworks on motorways

Road users have never had as much travel information as is available today. However the extent of congestion on major roads has also never been as critical as it is now. For this reason road authorities, including Rijkswaterstaat, aim to inform road users as best they can in an effort to allow the road user to make a more educated decision on travel and to increase the confidence they have in travel times, also during roadworks.  
The main result described in this thesis is a methodology incorporated in a model, which is capable of predicting travel times on motorway corridors for situations during roadworks that are to be carried out in the future. The model was evaluated using a roadworks study case on the A12 between The Hague and Gouda. The results of the model show a good likeness to the recorded travel times during the performed roadworks. An absolute relative error of less than 5% is recorded for the travel times during the main peak periods.

The research shows that predicting travel times for future roadworks is possible and moreover can be performed in a relatively accurate fashion without the necessity of an overcomplicated model. The application of the model is most suited to implementation for road user information through a website or incorporated in a route planner. The use of the model in roadwork planning is also possible, but will require alterations to model. 

Publication date: January 6, 2010
Download report: MSc_Thesis_Simeon_Calvert

Research topic:
Traffic information
Road construction and maintenance

Research question:
How to limit the impact of large scale road maintenance?

Predicting travel times during road works

Related report:
Alternatieve routes A15 Maasvlakte-Vaanplein